Climate Migration

Kiribati, the country currently most affected by rising sea levels & climate change.

When the 1951 convention on refugees was created, the post war context did not consider the realities of climate change. For this reason, the idea of a climate refugee is a new idea, but one that is becoming more and more relevant.

The idea of a climate refugee is someone who would be fleeing their home country due to climate change, especially in areas that will eventually be permanently affected, for example, by rising sea levels.

A GroundSwell Report from 2021 estimates there could be up to 216 million climate refugees by 2050. However, this number is an estimate, as we do not know how successful our counter climate change efforts may prove in the coming decades.

Unfortunately, countries least responsible for climate change, such as smaller nations in South East Asia, will be most affected by climate change. Especially those countries who have an agriculture dependent economy, which highly depends on weather conditions.

The most stark example of this currently is the small island nation of Kiribati, located in the Central Pacific Ocean. Kiribati is located almost directly at sea level, and rising sea levels have already begun causing issues for the residents. A landmark case in 2020 involving a Kiribati resident and New Zealand, has forced the international community to consider the future of expanding the definition of refugee.

Although the effects of climate change will be felt more seriously in certain areas of the world, few areas will be immune to the changes, including major cities in the United States. Moving forward, it will be important to think about where those who are forced from their homes due to natural disasters are to go, and what rights are to be afforded to them.

Interestingly, the Cartagena declaration on Refugees expands the definition of a refugee to persons fleeing "events that are seriously disturbing public order", which could very well include climate events. Currently, Canada has stated that it intends to decide climate refugee cases on a "case by case basis", despite there being no legislative basis for this type of refugee - for now.

Sources:

UN Human Rights Committee views adopted on Teitiota Communication. Climate Change Litigation. (2025, February 27). https://climatecasechart.com/non-us-case/un-human-rights-committee-views-adopted-on-teitiota-communication/

Stuff You Should Know, "How Climate Migration Works". April 1 2025. Retrieved from: https://open.spotify.com/show/0ofXAdFIQQRsCYj9754UFx?si=2e7d72c9fbee4bb0&nd=1&dlsi=11b502ff0bb5493a